As we mentioned we’d seen some recent research around how we model the likelihood to vote. TL/DR: it’s quite hard, and broadly speaking, the political polling establishment hasn’t quite figured it out. Partly it’s a reporting issue, but it’s also an issue of our own discourse of voter/non-voter.
The problem of "likely" voters
The problem of "likely" voters
The problem of "likely" voters
As we mentioned we’d seen some recent research around how we model the likelihood to vote. TL/DR: it’s quite hard, and broadly speaking, the political polling establishment hasn’t quite figured it out. Partly it’s a reporting issue, but it’s also an issue of our own discourse of voter/non-voter.