Do Ballot Initiatives Drive Greater Engagement?
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One question we’ve had is around reforms advocating for more participatory democracy, as a way to help voter turnout. Many journalists and theorists point to states with ballot measures as an example of places where citizens are more empowered and thus more engaged. Ballot measures mean that during elections, on top of candidates, voters choose to support or reject specific legislative propositions. Currently only 23 states have ballot measures as a component of their democratic arrangement. Some are also citizen-initiated. If part of the problem is a disconnect between voters and policy, ballot measures create opportunities for a more direct democracy, and could help increase voter participation.
So is it true?
key takeaways:
The presence and usage of ballot-initiatives increases total turnout in US elections, and the effect is heightened during midterms. Depending on how you look at it, it’s either ~4% during presidentials and ~8% during midterms, or around ~1% per ballot initiative (.7% during presidentials, 1.7% during midterms)
Typically, this bump in engagement is framed either as: as an example of democracy empowering more individuals to participate in the political process or as a way for campaign strategists to mobilize particular portions of an electorate. As a mobilization technique this has been used by both sides of the aisle.
While these bumps may seem small, in the current context of generally low voter turnout these initiatives can have a huge effect: an 8% turnout bump during a midterm when typically 40% of the population goes to vote is suddenly a big deal. Some scholars argue that the strategic use of ballot measures could be a critical determining factor in future presidential elections.
our thoughts:
To us this means that ballot initiatives aren’t solving any underlying issues. When your baseline for midterms is 40% and presidentials is 60%, getting a few more people who often vote to the ballot box helps increase turnout. And they help make midterms, which are often seen as less salient and less impactful than presidential campaigns, more compelling to longtime voters.
We’ve not yet found any good research on how ballot-initiatives can play a role in developing net-new voters, or even be part of a journey towards a more sustained long-term practice of voting. We did find research showing the contrary: that past usage of ballot measure processes do not lead to higher turnout, just new ballot initiatives.
While there may be a lot of value to be found in making democratic processes more responsive to voters, it seems that ballot-measures are more useful in getting likely voters to show up than engaging unlikely voters to participate in a process. What might be interesting to explore would be ballot measures at various scales of governments and organization; and seeing how they can be part of a broader journey of engagement.
The Ballot Initiative Returns to its Progressive, Populist Roots: City Lab, Nov 2018
The Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout in the United States: Smith, Tolbert and Grummel, American Politics Research, 2001
Engaged by the Initiative? How the Use of Citizen Initiatives Increases Voter Turnout: Childers and Binders, Political Research Quarterly, 2012
Working through feedback from the newsletters to date - thank you once again for your thoughts!
Posts and writing on immigrant non-voting, issues with the ANES, civic education and a systems-view of american voter engagement
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